It's now very realistic -- and even likely -- that UCLA will fire Chip Kelly after the USC game, according to many sources close to the situation.
If UCLA actually beats USC Saturday, the dismissal could be delayed until after the Cal game next Saturday.
The Bruins are 6-4 this season, after suffering two devastating losses to Arizona and Arizona State the last two weekends. Those losses really advanced UCLA’s intention to fire Kelly, who has been fairly embattled in his time in Westwood because of his underwhelming results and quirky approach to coaching and recruiting.
When UCLA went looking for a new head coach after the 2017 season, Kelly was the most-sought candidate on the market, and it was considered quite a coup that UCLA was able to get him. Kelly had a spectacular run as Oregon’s coach from 2009 to 2012, and even after unsuccessful stints with the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers, Kelly was still considered an offensive genius and a coveted figure as a coach. He, though, ignominously started his coaching career at UCLA going 3-9, 4-8 and 3-4 from 2018 to 2020, which constituted the worst three-year start for any UCLA football coach in modern history. He is, to date, just 33-33 overall, having never seriously competed for a Pac-12 championship or won a bowl game. He put together 8-win and 9-win seasons the last two years, but this season's 6-4 record and the two recent losses really underscored the continued mediocrity in the view of the UCLA powers-that-be.
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From what I’ve learned, a significant factor to dismiss Kelly was the perceived lack of a viable path forward as UCLA heads into the Big Ten in 2024. Kelly has little support from donors, especially in terms of NIL donations, which has now become the life blood of any college football program and its recruiting. In fact, from what I know, many UCLA donors have chosen not to donate to UCLA’s football NIL fund as long as Kelly is the UCLA head coach. The poor attendance at the Rose Bowl during Kelly’s tenure has been record-setting. As we reported yesterday, a number of current players are disgruntled with Kelly’s coaching and a fairly good-sized exodus is expected to start when the transfer portal opens up Dec. 4th.
There has always been an undercurrent of dissatisfaction with Kelly among the UCLA powers-that-be because of his grossly unsuccessful first three years, his refusal to engage with donors and some internal issues. The last two winning seasons put that dissatisfaction on the back burner, with the UCLA administration intending to give Kelly a chance to build on it. This season, enhanced by one of the easiest schedules in UCLA history, is, however, viewed as a profound step backward. The results on the field, the environment around the program off the field and the lack of a clear path forward led the administration to the point where it is now: likely to make a change.
It will be interesting to see what happens next week if UCLA beats USC on Saturday. Some sources have said that wouldn’t necessarily change UCLA’s conclusion it needs to fire Kelly, but it could possibly postpone the dismissal until after the Cal game next Saturday. Other sources have indicated that the UCLA administration, if it fires Kelly, will do so after the USC game regardless of the results.
It was reported previously that Kelly’s contractual buyout would reduce from approximately $8 million to just about $4 million as of December 15th. While there is no definitive information available on Kelly’s buyout, it’s now believed there is no imminent reduction of the buyout and that it’s a little under $9 million before or after December 15th. This is consistent with UCLA’s likely intention to fire Kelly after the USC game and not waiting until a later date. The Kelly buyout is an absolute bargain in this era of astronomical buyouts; Texas A&M just fired Jimbo Fisher and is on the hook for his $77 million buyout.
Sources are indicating that UCLA has donor funds earmarked to cover Kelly’s buyout.