Oregon State, Washington meet in monumental Pac-12 football game: Preview, predictions as Beavers eye chaos

Bahns: Oregon State and Washington have history when it comes to competing for conference championships. The Beavers’ last league title came in 2000 when they shared the crown with the Huskies. It is entirely possible that these teams will meet again with conference supremacy on the line in two weeks at the Pac-12 Championship Game.

For Oregon State to get there, it must win out, which means getting past the Huskies on Saturday and going into enemy territory and pulling out a rivalry victory at Oregon. Winning one of those games, let alone both, is a major challenge, but this team is capable of pulling it off.

Lucas: Washington’s path to Las Vegas is much simpler but could quickly grow dangerous if it shares that mindset. The Huskies can clinch a trip to the Pac-12 Championship Game with a win over Oregon State or Washington State.

While a 1-1 mark creates a conference championship opportunity, going 2-0 heightens the odds of Washington reaching the College Football Playoff. An undefeated Power Five conference champion has never missed the CFP, so Washington has a firm grip on its own destiny.

Bahns: Can Oregon State’s defense — which allowed 40 points at California and 38 points at Washington State — be trusted against the nation’s most prolific passing attack? The unit plays far better at home, but its weaknesses have already been exposed, and Washington’s offense is as likely as any to make those problems rear their heads again.

Red-hot edge rusher Andrew Chatfield Jr. could wreak some havoc on the Huskies’ pocket. But so long as Penix gets the ball out in time, he should be able to torch the Beavers downfield often enough to outscore the home team.

Lucas: Washington’s passing attack has been a nightmare to defend and it found success against Utah despite wind from Lake Washington pushing through Husky Stadium. Outside of Arizona State, Penix has been effective against every foe on the schedule due to his arm talent, receivers and offensive line. He has been sacked just seven times this season, which has led to success for wide receivers Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk.

On the other side of the ball, the Huskies have struggled defensively but have managed to secure timely stops, as seen in every game since the win over Oregon. Washington performs best in crunch time and that could be the deciding factor.

Bahns: A few trends point to an Oregon State win, or at the very least, a very narrow defeat. First, Oregon State has suffered just one loss by more than three points since the 2021 season.

It is also in the midst of a dominant stretch at home; the Beavers have just one loss at Reser Stadium since 2020. Corvallis will be an extremely hostile environment for the Huskies this weekend, and overcoming a very real home-field advantage in addition to the Beavers’ elite offensive line, electric skill position players and stout defense is a tall order.

Lucas: Washington hasn’t played in an environment that replicates what it will experience at Reser Stadium. That isn’t a “West Coast doesn’t care about football” thing — Utah and Oregon were home games for the Huskies, and Michigan State fans were more mellow than usual after a slow start and Mel Tucker’s suspension.

USC is scenic and not known for noise. Fans donning orange and black will be out for blood when the Pac-12-departing Huskies march into Reser Stadium and it could be enough of an emotional boost to put the Beavers over the top.

Bahns: Oregon State’s secondary is beaten up, and that does not bode well for its chances of containing the Huskies’ high-flying passing attack. Skyler Thomas, a projected starter at cornerback in the preseason, tore his ACL in fall camp and is out for the year. Tyrice Ivy, who started in his absence, is also done for the regular season. That forces Jermod McCoy — a true freshman — into the lineup to defend Washington’s elite receivers.

Also, on the offensive line, star center Jake Levengood is questionable after missing each of the last two games.

Lucas: The big question for the Huskies is the status of wide receiver Jalen McMillan. He had 1,040 receiving yards and eight scores on 71 catches last season but has been limited to just 20 catches with 311 receiving yards and three scores.

After not playing against USC and seeing a handful of snaps against Utah, time will tell if the Huskies were preserving McMillan for Oregon State and beyond. Fellow wide receivers Giles Jackson and Denzel Boston could return to action against Oregon State as well, according to Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.

Bahns: Neither team will be caught sleeping in this one. This is easily Oregon State’s biggest game in more than two decades and might be its biggest game for the foreseeable future. On the flip side, Washington is playing with a national championship on the line.

With that in mind, the showdown should come down strictly to on-field execution, and “execute” is all the Beavers do at home.

Uiagalelei, the receiving duo of Anthony Gould and Silas Bolden, star tight end Jack Velling and one of the nation’s best runners in Martinez should find plenty of success against the shaky Washington defense. Oregon State wins an instant classic, and Corvallis celebrates for eternity. Oregon State 34, Washington 31

Lucas: Corvallis will be unhinged, Martinez will be a wrecking ball and Oregon State has a chance to secure an unbeaten home record and keep its Pac-12 title hopes alive, all while handing a northern foe its first loss. In other words, there are many reasons why Washington could lose Saturday.

Penix is why it won’t. The Huskies’ quarterback will produce another “Heisman Trophy moment,” as he did against Oregon.

The passing attack will climb from daunting to inevitable, assuming that McMillan and Jackson are on a full-go. Washington survives and collectively decides to avoid Reser Stadium for the foreseeable future — effective immediately. Washington 31, Oregon State 28